Prediction Markets: Every Crime on Record, Zero Convictions

Opening

Dear reader, here’s what happened on December 3, 2025. An anonymous account known as “Google Whale” deposited $3 million into Polymarket and placed 23 bets on Google’s “Year in Search” rankings. The result: 22 correct calls and $1.15 million in profit within 24 hours. One bet alone—on the artist d4vd, whose odds of making the rankings were just 0.2%—earned $200,000. There’s no explanation for that other than knowing something in advance.

But here’s the more surprising part. Nothing happened after this incident. Blockchain technology records every transaction on a public ledger. The evidence is sitting there in plain sight, yet as of February 2026, the number of federal indictments for prediction-market insider trading in the United States stands at zero.

A ₩60 Trillion (~$43.6B) ‘Legal Gray Zone’

Prediction markets are platforms where people bet money on the outcome of future events. Questions like “Will interest rates rise next month?” or “Will OpenAI launch a new model?” trade as contracts priced between $0 and $1, and the price itself represents probability. If a “Yes” contract trades at $0.70, the market is pricing that outcome at 70%. Honestly, though, I think “prediction market” is a generous name for it—this is closer to an odd-or-even betting market. Go look at what’s actually listed and you’ll find bets dressed up as polls on everything from whether a war or accident will happen this week to the most trivial questions imaginable.

The growth rate here is stunning. In 2025, combined trading volume across Polymarket and Kalshi topped $40 billion (~₩55 trillion). That’s dozens of times larger than early 2024. The 2024 U.S. presidential election was the catalyst—election-related markets alone reached over $3.3 billion. Both platforms are now in talks for further funding at valuations around $20 billion each.

The problem is that the range of things you can bet on here is far broader than in the stock market—AI product launch dates, presidential elections, military operations, even a YouTuber’s next video. The scope of what could count as inside information is effectively infinite. And because Polymarket runs on blockchain, trades can be anonymous. Even if someone profits from inside information, there’s no way to immediately know who they are.